The cabinet’s big gamble

June 5, 2009 by
Filed under: Politics 

Here, for what it’s worth, are my thoughts about this bizarre unfolding day of politics. First, expect the unexpected. Over the last two years no one predicted the huge swings of the political pendulum. Brown’s position was so strong in his first few months he nearly called an early election. He then went into free fall before starting to pull things back last autumn as the Conservative response to the credit crunch faltered. Then, in the last few weeks, in the wake of McBride and MPs’ expenses, Brown has taken Labour to new depths of support.

The last 24 hours are a microcosm of these wild swings. Listening to the radio last night after James Purnell’s resignation, the pundits were close to consensus that the game was up for the Prime Minister. But now with Miliband, Darling and Johnson safely ensconced in the big three jobs there is an emerging view that the Prime Minister may survive. Number Ten has a slew of major policy announcements on the stocks. Downing Street believes that if  Brown can maintain sufficient momentum to get through the next few days his chances of making it to the general election are pretty good. But if this sounds like prediction, ignore it – the one thing we have learnt over the last two years is that political pundits are less reliable than horse racing tipsters.
 
My second point assumes Gordon Brown survives. He will then be able to rely on the total commitment and loyalty of his cabinet. Unlike almost everyone else, I try to take a charitable view of politicians. So, I assume that those ministers who have long had private criticisms of the Brown set-up have stayed in Government because they have changed their mind for strong substantive reasons. To be propping up a Prime Minister simply from inertia, fear or career calculation would be hard to defend. This implies the Cabinet must now be made up of people whose genuine political judgement it is that Grown Brown can defy the odds and come through next year, presumably by a combination of visionary new policy, economic recovery and drawing the dividing lines with the Conservatives. 

Everyone in Labour ranks – including James Purnell – will hope those who have stayed have got it right, and given the swings of the last two years it is not inconceivable. But if they are wrong there will be nowhere to hide. After the Purnell resignation no one can say they didn’t have a choice.

So, on the one hand we have the possibility of another swing of the pendulum and the greatest political come back in modern Parliamentary history. On the other hand, if Gordon does stay and lose badly, Labour members could turn against the whole of its current leadership class. Few of the people then emerging as the architects of the post Blair-Brown Labour Party will be names widely recognised today.

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10 Comments on The cabinet’s big gamble

  1. Julian Dobson on Fri, 5th Jun 2009 12:07 pm

    2. You may well be right about all of this, and let’s be charitable – politicians aren’t that different from the rest of us. My worry is that as time goes on Downing Street is becoming more and more distant from the electorate, and everything we’ve seen in recent weeks is exacerbating that. Whatever we read into the council and European election results when they come in, I think it will be a decisive vote against more of the same – but a much more muddied indication of what the electorate really does want.

  2. Terry Duffelen on Fri, 5th Jun 2009 12:30 pm

    3. The pundits seem to believe that Brown will just survive the day and be able to form a new Government. If he does, then I agree that he will probably survive for another year with the Cabinet behind him.

    The aim of the Government now will be, not to win another term but to avoid a wipe out similar to what the Tories experienced in ’97. To what extent, we the people will benefit from this somewhat narrow approach to running the country is less certain. It is possible that we may find ourselves on the end of some tasty benefits by way of an inducement to tick Labour in our boxes next Summer.

    However, any financial incentives in the form of tax cuts or similar would almost inevitably have to be clawed back at a later date thanks the enormous debt accrued.

  3. Matthew Cain on Fri, 5th Jun 2009 1:02 pm

    4. The current leaders of the Labour party are an absolute shambles. I for one, have already turned against them. If others haven’t, they’ve got far more patience than me.
    http://blog.matthewcain.co.uk/cant-back-gordon-brown-cant-back-coup/

  4. Joe Nutt on Sat, 6th Jun 2009 12:12 pm

    5. Matthew, I’m honestly surprised you still think that Brown (the prime-minister-who -never-was) could ever “rely on the total commitment and loyalty of his cabinet.” One of the most revealing events of the last few days must surely have been the way, one after another, leading labour politicians have abandoned what I imagine are their principles of public service, for utterly selfish reasons. Just another symptom of the crass solipsism which has been the driving force behind the last decade, culturally as well as politically.

    For me, it is also a question above all, of competence. New, and now Brownian Labour, always seemed to me to be constantly exposed by incompetence. This was personally driven home to me a couple of years ago, when I was traveling on a train to Birmingham and found myself sitting opposite two young, Labour apparachicks on their way to the spring conference. They spent the entire journey busily letting their neighbours know how important they were, using their Blackberries constantly and spreading paperwork all over the table top.

    At one point, the one sitting opposite me placed a single sheet of A4 on the table. It was a list of the then cabinet, with their mobile numbers and personal email addresses. That was a few weeks after one of the major scandals over data security had hit the press. A colleague of mine said, when I told him, that I should have snatched it up and waved it aloft for all the train to see! Maybe next time.

  5. Angus Bearn on Sun, 7th Jun 2009 9:10 pm

    6. The fuss about Gordon Brown’s leadership is just the honking of journalistic geese. There is a hard-core of people who will ALWAYS support Gordon Brown so long as he has air in his lungs. People who remember what true moral and polictical leadership is: cancelling third-world debt and super-casinos, for example. OK, so I admit this hardcore numbers, erm, just me at the moment. And yes, I admit it was a bit naughty of Gordon to let the banks gamble away all our money in the uber-super-casino of the money-markets. And I suppose you would have to concede the man can be a bit tetchy and has no friends. But hey, I’m not looking for a PM to snog . Come on, guys, there is only one giant on the moral and political stage in Britain, no? Stop all the honking and let him get on with the job.

  6. matthewtaylor on Mon, 8th Jun 2009 8:42 am

    7. Thanks Terry, I agree. Alan Sugar and the Iraq inquiry (whatever the arguments for both or either) are examples of desperate attempt to win support from the electorate and the Party respectively. It wont be good for anyone if we have a government constantly casting around for short term measures that give it a few good headlines.

  7. matthewtaylor on Mon, 8th Jun 2009 8:43 am

    8. Thanks Julian. I agree – elections (especially mid-term) tell us more about what people don’t want than about what they do.

  8. matthewtaylor on Mon, 8th Jun 2009 8:49 am

    9. Thanks Angus. Your loyalty reflects well on you. I think GB has many qualities but my question is this; when did not being able to connect to the public stop being a essential attribute for a political leader? This lies in the hands of Labour MPs but it is not disloyal or unfair to say that it is up to GB to show that – despite all evidence to the contrary – he can connect.

  9. Angus Bearn on Mon, 8th Jun 2009 2:42 pm

    10. Matthew, an almost untouchable perspective. And to be fair, Not Flash, Just Gordon was an attempt to sidestep GB’s weaknesses. And yet, and yet. If the Great British Public are contrary enough to adopt the big guy on some talent show, and the eccentric Mr Johnson, and Eddie the Eagle, then there is at least some hope they might connect with a grouchy professor-type? (Though I don’t suppose GB will thank me for the company I put him in). Wasn’t Kevin Rudd known as Dr Death? The boy done good. In fact, more than all this, when did the PM stop being human? When EVERYBODY is out to get you, just becuase the smell of blood is in the air, then we have a kind of societal bullying. Not very English, is it? No wonder half the population felt validated to vote BNP. Kicking people is back in fashion.
    No-one connected like Churchill, but he would be sacked before breakfast today. All those junkets and rich friends, wild almost bipolar behaviour. But his colleagues reluctantantly recognised a flawed genius, and cut him the necessary slack. If we’re not careful, we’ll end up with Joanna Lumley MP and Esther Rantzen MP flashing their impeccable celebrity teeth at the BNP across the floor of the Commons. Great TV, but hopeless for running the NHS

  10. matthewtaylor on Mon, 8th Jun 2009 4:08 pm

    11. Thanks Angus. You’re right – it shouldn’t be a beauty parade. But I think GB’s problems are less to do with his looks and more the lack of authenticity in his communication. It is the sense that he believes one thing but feels he has to say another to keep the public happy (thus, for example, YouTube and other clunking PR stunts). This makes people feel unseen and disrespected.

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