The shot putter’s final throw

June 19, 2009 by
Filed under: Credit crunch, Politics 

After schools, houses, electoral reform and the future of the human race, it’s time for a bit of politics to finish off the week; time also for one of my famous incredibly contrived analogies. Gordon Brown is in the position of an Olympic shot putter who has had two no-throws.

At the beginning of the competition his supporters thought he was a real contender – that’s why he was selected. Now, given the performance so far of his main opponent in the competition, not many people think he can win. But he has to get his third round throw right or else he won’t even be there at the finish. Fortunately for him, he has conditions on his side.

OK, enough of the analogy. The bad news for Gordon Brown is that his ministers and MPs could still force a terminal leadership crisis in the autumn if things haven’t improved for Labour. By that time three aspects of the case made for the Prime Minister two weeks ago will have gone:

• The argument that a change of leadership will force an early election; GB himself will only have seven months left and a new leader could anyway say the first realistic time for an election would be spring

• The argument that better news on the economy will improve the polls will to some extent have been tested

• Those who turned against GB in the autumn could argue that they had stayed loyal for as long as could reasonably be asked.

But the good news for GB is that there are several reasons why his position may improve:

• MPs’ expenses will eventually stop being a big story

• There will be the steady flow of better economic news and international praise for his recession strategy

• Over the next two or three weeks the Government is unveiling several big policy statements with the aim of demonstrating it still has an agenda

• Governments generally improve their poll rating over the summer recess simply because people are in a good mood and are less likely to read newspapers or think about politics

• Labour conference will be a carefully choreographed pre-election rally

• And, finally, GB has his final Queen’s Speech to make commitments and draw dividing lines. He might still, for example, respond to growing public and cabinet pressure and pledge a polling day referendum on electoral reform.

So, all in all, the odds are on the veteran competitor throwing far enough to make the final. But he’ll stay nervous until he does, and, of course, making the final and winning it are two very, very different things.

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9 Comments on The shot putter’s final throw

  1. Pete B on Fri, 19th Jun 2009 4:50 pm

    2. I think the best reason to suspect that Brown will still be around at the next election is that, after two failed attempts to oust him, MPs will be very sceptical of any further attempts and will thus be reluctant to move against him again.

  2. matthewtaylor on Fri, 19th Jun 2009 5:37 pm

    3. See your point. But if it is late October and the polls still point to meltdown what have they got to lose? As I say the arguments that worked two weeks ago would not apply by then if things had not got better

  3. Pete B on Fri, 19th Jun 2009 6:09 pm

    4. Ok, but I still think that a change of circumstances will have less impact because of the two failed attempts – not only did the rebels lose the argument, but they failed to organise properly too. MPs’ scepticism about the possibility of organising an effective group to oust the PM will surely massively colour their views of the situation come the autumn.

    Also, what they have to lose are their seats. A bungled attempt to oust Gordon Brown would likely push the swing to the Tories an extra few percentage points further. Each extra percentage point the swing goes will put several more Labour MPs out office. As I’ve said here before, the judgement which MPs have to make is very fine indeed, but for the while the momentum is (sort of) with Gordon Brown and it would probably be better to stick with him to the end (the better of two bad options).

  4. phil h on Fri, 19th Jun 2009 8:14 pm

    5. Gordon is like one of those wife beaters – his wife (the labour party) knows his faults but has decided to stick with him not because they love him but because they fear the consequences of not having him.

    His faults are an inability to connect with the public, an inability to do humility, an inability to be statesmanlike, an inability to be totally honest, and an addiction to dividing lines. As such the GB public will never elect him as PM. Like a wife beater, he can promise to change but his faults are inherent and immutable.

    The labour party if they had sense would find an excuse for Gordon to go in the Autumn and go for someone who can really connect with the public, Johnson. The other contenders Miliband, Balls, Purnell don’t cut the mustard – they have not done a proper day’s work in their life and in the expenses scandal their fragrance is not roselike.Overgrown NOLS members the lot of them.

    Johnson has Major’s humility and man of the people back story. Like Major in 1992, Johnson could win against a malign economic backdrop. Unemployment will be circa 2.5 million by election time.

    Johnson is Labour’s best hope. Personally I’d love to see a Johnson v David Davies election battle- two working class boys made good – Johnson all charm and bonhomie, Davies a humorous bruiser. I can’t quite see a narrative whereby Cameron steps down for Davies other than some hard partying pictures emerge, involving white powder.

    Cameron hasn’t quite sealed the deal with the public, Johnson could though.

  5. matthewtaylor on Sat, 20th Jun 2009 12:18 pm

    6. Thanks Phil. A strong case strongly expressed.

  6. matthewtaylor on Sat, 20th Jun 2009 12:29 pm

    7. I agree and I don’t think anyone will embark on a challenge unless the mod is overwhelming for change. And maybe (judging by the Guardian interview) GB himself may lose the will to fight back yet again

  7. phil h on Sat, 20th Jun 2009 12:38 pm

    8. Thanks Matthew. I get to talk to alot of people in my day job – cleaners, lorry drivers, council workers, managers, executives and there seems to be some unanimity about Gordon Brown – arrogance and inauthenticity.

    He should try to be himself and own up to some mistakes – Iraq, no more boom and bust, tripartite bank regulation, the pension raid – successful people are confident enough to admit mistakes. People respect honesty and humility.

    I note a slight change of tone in today’s Guardian interview-a step in the right direction, provided it’s not spin. He needs to say it to camera and mean it.

  8. matthewtaylor on Tue, 23rd Jun 2009 6:47 am

    9. Thanks Phil. I agree that GB’s Oberver interview was a better tone. I think Labour may get a small bounce over the next three months. But how big and how long will it last?

  9. Why good news is bad news for the Prime Minister : Matthew Taylor’s blog on Tue, 4th Aug 2009 10:08 am

    10. [...] couple of weeks ago I described Gordon Brown’s position as that of a unfancied shot putter in an Olympic final. He has had two no throws and has to get the [...]

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