Why good news is bad news for the Prime Minister

August 4, 2009 by
Filed under: Politics, Public policy 

A couple of weeks ago I described Gordon Brown’s position as that of a unfancied shot putter in an Olympic final. He has had two no throws and has to get the next one right even to compete in the final round – a round few think he will win. 

More positively for the PM, I listed several factors that might give him a boost as he tries to survive. These included the quietening down of the MPs’ expenses storm, the major policy announcements he was planning to make before recess and the emergence of better economic news. The bad news for GB is that while events have gone broadly to plan it has made not a jot of difference to his poll rating.

The policy announcements in areas ranging from public service to climate change were treated reasonably seriously by the more thoughtful parts of the media. But no pick up in the polls. MPs’ expenses have largely disappeared from the front pages. But no pick up in the polls. And now the economic news is getting better. But still, so far, no pick up in the polls.

I suggested three other events that might help the PM. One was his ability to craft a radical, agenda-setting, Queen’s Speech. But given the indifference shown so far to his policy agenda, and the very limited time he has to get any measures through in the truncated final session, this looks like a forlorn hope.

This leaves two final straws of hope.  Governments generally recover a bit of popularity in the summer just because politics is not so much in the news. Also, GB can look forward to a conference designed by his beleaguered party to be a rally for its equally beleaguered leader.

But once again the optimism looks misplaced. Scarcely has the PM gone on holiday than leadership speculation has started to rage, with Peter Mandelson now being seriously touted as a new leader.

There can be no question that Mandy is the dominant politician in Labour’s ranks. If there is to be a change, on talent and experience alone he should be the lead contender. But, even now, and with him being in cahoots with sworn past enemies like Charlie Wheelan, he is a highly controversial figure. If Labour does change leader before the election it will be controversial enough, but to do so after a contested and possibly acrimonious leadership battle (say, between Mandelson and Harman), would surely snap the already thin patience of the electorate.

If GB is to be replaced there needs to be a candidate with overwhelming support from the rest of the party. So if the Mandy camp is serious about leadership it needs, quite apart from sorting Mandy a Parliamentary seat, to build some strong alliances with all wings of the Party. 

To do this while continuing to be seen as the person loyally propping up the present PM will be a challenge even for a man of Peter Mandelson’s substantial abilities.

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5 Comments on Why good news is bad news for the Prime Minister

  1. Vincenzo on Tue, 4th Aug 2009 12:10 pm

    2. I wonder if the Labour Party will rally around GB at this year’s conference? I’m always astounded by the party’s ability to make things difficult for it’s own leader (and visa versa?)

    Certainly Gordon’s speech will have to be spectacular…

  2. FutureGov » Useful links » links for 2009-08-05 on Wed, 5th Aug 2009 1:01 pm

    3. [...] Why good news is bad news for the Prime Minister : Matthew Taylor’s blog (tags: gordonbrown uk matthewtaylor rsa politics newlabour) [...]

  3. matthewtaylor on Wed, 5th Aug 2009 4:13 pm

    4. The leadership speculation doesn’t seem to have gone away. GB needs to convince the Party its fortunes can improve under him. This is a hard argument to make at present. He desperately needs some upturn in the polls or problems to befall the Conservatives. Otherwise, however good his speech, conference will be overshadowed by yet more speculation

  4. Marbury on Wed, 5th Aug 2009 10:56 pm

    5. Is leadership speculation really “raging”? Are the rumours about Mandelson really anything more than this week’s made-up story? My impression is that the answer to both questions is no, but then I haven’t been following reports that closely so may well have missed something.

    The underlying picture *seems* less exciting. Brown is dug in. There will be a constant background grumble about his leadership but no major moves. I suspect conference will go reasonably well as the nearness of the election clarifies minds. Brown will leads Labour into the election and lose, although perhaps not as badly as some predict. I think his sheer bloody-minded survival may earn him a grudging respect from voters and highlight Cameron’s flimsy quality.

    On another point: Brown’s TED speech. Why can’t he perform like that more often?

  5. matthewtaylor on Sat, 8th Aug 2009 9:09 am

    6. Well made point Ian. I used to share your view. My mind has been changed by the unremittingly bad performance of Labour in elections (by, Euro and local) and opinion polls. There has to be some reason for hope by the autumn or it will start to feel irresponsible for senior Labour figures not at least to see whether another leader could do better.

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