In praise of the IFS
In my annual lecture I spoke about the need to create a 21st century public sphere, a modern equivalent of the flowering of new spaces for discourse and civic invention which took place in the eighteenth century Enlightenment. This was a time which saw the opening of coffee houses where the growing middle class could talk about philosophy and current affairs, the creation of learned societies like the RSA, and the emergence of mass publishing, especially in the form of newspapers.
I am developing ideas for debate, research and development around the goal of new institutions for a new public sphere, and of course, we walk the talk by working with FRSAs to change the ethos of Fellowship. (By the way, I was delighted to see that this month we have again another good crop of applications for RSA Catalyst, our seed corn fund for Fellows’ projects.)
An important challenge in the cultivation of a new public sphere is creating institutions which can be seen to be putting social purpose ahead of organisational self interest. Too many organisations which claim to act in the public good are prone to self indulgence, special pleading and empire building. Whilst the third sector contains great organisations held together by the commitment, courage and creativity of amazing people, it also features producer-captured bureaucracies who go to great lengths to avoid searching questions about their own effectiveness.
In the think tank sector one organisation stands out as a beacon. The Institute of Fiscal Studies is well-managed, well respected, and – most important of all – fearless of Government. In the early says of New Labour, when everyone was genuflecting to ‘The Project’, Andrew Dilnot’s IFS was one of the first organisations to ask hard questions. I remember them pulling apart the first comprehensive spending review and Gordon Brown’s misguided tactic of rolling up several years spending in a single impressive figure. Brown’s people were furious and there was a concerted, but thankfully unsuccessful, attempt to threaten the Institute’s funding and undermine its credibility.
Now the IFS is back at it again. Under the splendid leadership of the razor sharp, eloquent and dapper Robert Chote, it has swum against the tide of fawning to the Coalition to expose the less than fully honest Budget briefing.
In response to the Coalition’s claim that the budget measures are redistributive, the IFS has pointed out that: first, this is largely because of the inclusion of measures already announced by Labour (particularly the 50 pence tax band); second, measures whose effect cannot be fully predicted (like housing benefit caps) will almost certainly impact hardest on the poor; and, third, future deep public spending cuts are again most likely to hit the poorest hardest.
Many Conservatives will be relaxed about this making the case for discouraging welfare dependence, protecting the ‘squeezed’ middle classes and maintaining incentives for enterprise and risk taking. But the IFS analysis must be very uncomfortable for the Liberal Democrats.
I suspect that if any other organisation has made these criticisms (particularly had they been linked with Labour) the Treasury would have been quick and aggressive with their rebuttal, but so sound is the reputation of the IFS that any attempt to rubbish its analysis could be deeply counter-productive.
The IFS is a great British institution. It has established its unparalleled authority through years of high quality analysis by sticking to what it does best and a willingness to say what needs to be said, regardless of the reception it receives. I take my hat off to it.
Brighton team talk
Just back from Labour conference and the second of the RSA’s 2009 round of fringe meetings. The Labour speaker was Peter Mandelson who was in and out pretty quickly as his conference speech was this afternoon. Once again it was standing room only – which means of the five fringe events we have done in recent times every one has been full.
It is fascinating having Robert Chote from the IFS and Ben Page from Ipsos MORI on the RSA platform. Robert knows what must be done to get the public finances back on track and Ben knows what the voters are willing to accept. We could hand Government over to the two of them: the only problem being that – according to the RSA poll – there isn’t any overlap between the two answers!
I couldn’t help noticing an uncanny similarity between the mood and message in Brighton and the half time team talk given by the coach of my son’s football team yesterday morning. Balham Blazers under 17s were 3-0 down, mainly due to some goalkeeping howlers. The coach said what he had to say. ‘We’ve made mistakes. But we played the best football and we can still win. If we pick up our heads and our game we can still do this. We just have to put the other team under pressure, then we’ll see what they are really made of ’. Some of his message got through but you could see the players found it hard to believe their luck could change. And however much they tried to comfort him, it was impossible to hide that they had lost confidence in the keeper.
I’ve been asked not to use this blog for political commentary so I won’t explore Labour’s message except to say that it is just as predictable as the coach’s. Everyone on the conference floor is pretty much sticking to it and Labour strategists will hope that it gets through to the voters despite all the other distractions.
With Labour adopting a more traditional left of centre perspective it will be interesting to see how the Conservatives respond next week. Will they occupy the fairly large gap on the centre right now left vacant by the other parties (the position successfully adopted in Germany by Angela Merkel) or continue to try to occupy the centre?
By the way, despite a plucky second half performance Balham Blazers under 17s lost 4-1
PS I was, of course, delighted to see that I appear 55th in the Daily Telegraph list of the most influential people on the British left. An old friend came up to me in Brighton; ‘Matthew’, he said ‘it’s so unfair that you are 55th’. Before I could modestly reassure him that these things really don’t matter to me, he went on ‘no one in the Labour Party has thought of you as being on the left for years’. Too true, comrade, too true.
A wake up call for the public sector
Steve Bundred, chief executive of the Audit Commission, gives it to us straight this morning in The Times:
‘Tax increases and spending cuts are inevitable immediately after the election….’
‘any managers of a public service who are not planning now on the basis they will have substantially less money to spend in two years time are living in cloud cuckoo land’
This message chimes with the detailed picture drawn last week for the 2020 Public Services Trust Commission (here at the RSA) by IFS Director Robert Chote. Put simply, we are talking about a period of at least three years, starting next year, in which public spending budgets will be squeezed more tightly than in the living memory of most public servants.
Which means three issues should be getting focussed attention in the public sector – but I see little sign of any even being seriously discussed.
First, we need to be exploring the scope for major productivity gains, not just cutting back office staff, but re-engineering services to achieve substantial cuts in costs. The example I have given in the past involves schools moving to a four day taught week for key stage four pupils with the fifth day being used for self guided study. With the right use of space, on-line tuition and teaching support this could make a substantial saving on teaching time and also be good for pupils. Another example is that if local authorities moved more boldly on individual budgets, putting in place the technological and community support necessary to do so, they should be able radically to reduce case and middle management costs in adult service departments.
Second, we need to be encouraging an intensified process of innovation in public services, designed to find ways of doing the same, or more, for less. There are many organisations out there, from Participle to Think Public to the Design Council (indeed the RSA itself) with expertise in citizen-led public sector innovation, but their work still tends to be at the margins. They need to be given more support and be incentivised to collaborate better.
Third, we need a frank and creative discussion between policy makers, practitioners and the public about the hard choices to be made over the coming years. Local residents may complain about moving to fortnightly refuse collection but they might feel differently if they understood this was one of the measures that enabled the council to protect other services. The creative question here is how could the actions of citizens themselves reduce spending pressures and enhance service outcomes?
These kinds of debates should be taking in every Government department and local authority. If public services don’t adapt, innovate and engage the public in new ways we face a demoralising and divisive era of cuts which will not only damage people’s lives but could fatally undermine voters’ faith in universal public provision.
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